Disturbing Update on Mumbai

It looks like five of the fifteen terrorists that invaded Mumbai are still at large in the city or elsewhere. Nine of the gunmen were killed during the crisis and one was captured alive. The Indian government has confirmed that ten men were involved, but the fishing boat the gunmen hijacked had supplies for fifteen men, including fifteen toothbrushes and fifteen jackets. 

It is feared that these five gunmen are still at large and could make a second strike on the city.

The Situation in Mumbai

I have a friend in Mumbai. She and I met when I developed a graduate course in financial markets and she was part of my support team. We worked online together for some months. She was a wonderful support person, a great lady and worked right downtown in the financial district of Mumbai. I've emailed her since the terrorists struck in Mumbai, but I've had no answer. I'm hoping and praying she's OK.

India is not as geared up as the U.S., Britain, or some of the European countries for terrorism attacks. The infrastructure is not there. I've heard that a team of U.S. experts is standing ready to fly to India to help. Why are they standing ready and not in the air? George Bush - get busy and get some help to the Indian people. They are a wonderful, gentle people and a great friend to the U.S. They need help and we should be there to give it to them.

160 people have been killed and 327 wounded. 5 Americans have been killed. The terrorists were targeting Americans, British, and Israelis. There is no proof, yet, that this is an Al-Quiada sponsored attack but all the marks of that group are there. The Indian government is suspicious of Pakistan and are particularly suspicious that the terrrorists have an agenda that includes the India-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir. Right now, there is no way to know.

The terror is ongoing in Mumbai. There are still one or two terrorists in the Taj hotel. The journalists reporting from Mumbai do not have much new information at this point.

More from here when there is news. Keep these people in your thoughts.

The U.S. Political Process

Who can imagine an election that generates much more passion than the presidential election we just had in the U.S.? So many of us were involved and invested in this election in some way. We had strong feelings about one of the Presidential candidates or another. For the first time in American history, we had a racial issue in the Presidential race, an issue that has scarred our country for more than a century.

Not only did we have a racial issue in this election, we had a deep political divide in this election with the American people being polarized at either end of the political spectrum. We became either conservative or liberal without much in between.

We had two candidates we could not have been much different. We had a candidate running on a Democratic platform with his mantra being change. On top of that, he was also the African-American candidate. He had bold, new ideas that would change the face of the U.S. Our other candidate was a tried and true American hero that we all admired, but who was of the same political party as our current President.

The elements of upheaval for the American people were all there. Instead of a celebration in Grant Park in Chicago, there could have been a riot in Grant Park in Chicago similar to the one in 1968 during the Democratic convention. But there wasn't.

We were passionate and polarized -- two elements that could have made for serious upheaval in our society during the campaign and on election night. There were a few disturbing incidents, but nothing like there could have been.

This election made me thankful for the American political process which is like none other in the world. For all of our faults, our democracy is still the best that there is. We are in the process of a very orderly transfer of power between a very different President and President-elect. Who else could do it but America?

Update on the Obama Cabinet!

It looks like both Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) want it to happen. They want her to be in the position of Secretary of State. The problem is Bill Clinton's business dealings regarding his Global Initiative and his library as Obama has promised transparency in his administration. Obama has also interviewed the Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, for the post and it's well known that Senator John Kerry (D-MA) is also interested. Clinton has been endorsed by two Republicans for the job, Henry Kissinger and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

As for other cabinet positions, Robert Gates could very well stay on as Secretary of Defense. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) could come on board as he has been a critic of the Iraq war. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is a colleague and confident of President-elect Obama and is expected to play some part in his administration.

Gregory Craig, a former Clinton administration member, has been appointed as White House Counsel, and, of course, Rahm Emanuel is Chief of Staff. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) will meet with Obama on Monday. They will discuss what role he might play in the Obama administration.

Watch for the appointment of Secretary of Treasury. Given the current U.S. economic crisis, this could very well be the most important appointment the President-elect makes. Also, if Senator Clinton becomes Secretary of State, a burning question is who will become National Security Advisor and will there be a power struggle between Clinton, the NSA, and Vice-President Joe Biden, who has years of foreign policy experience.

Who would you like to see in these positions?

The Women of the Obama Economy

President-elect Barack Obama rolled out his top-notch economic team today. Two of his top advisors are very impressive women with brilliant minds who will serve close to the President in the White House and be instrumental in developing economic policy during the Obama administration.

Melody Barnes

Melody Barnes will led the Domestic Policy Council in the White House. This agency is in charge of interagency coordination and policy formulation regarding some important issues -- health care, immigration, education -- indeed, all of domestic policy. This position has been virtually invisible in the Bush administration because Bush hasn't dealt with domestic policy, except for tax cuts.

Barnes is an attorney who spent eight years as chief counsel to Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on the Senate Judiciary committee. She has most recently been Executive Vice President at the Center for American Progress. Barnes is smart and is probably a nod to the left of the Democratic party. She is very qualified and dedicated to progressive change for the average American to have access to the American Dream. In her role in the Obama White House, she can have an impact on nearly every economic issue facing the country. Most feel that she is a brilliant choice for this position.

Christina D. Romer 

President-elect Obama has tapped Christina D. Romer to head his Council of Economic Advisors, which provides economic analysis and advice to the President. This is a very important position, that, together with the Domestic Policy Counsel and other members of the Obama economic team, will provide invaluable advice to the President concerning the economy.

Christina Romer is a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. She has done groundbreaking research into the Great Depression and the recovery after the Great Depression as well as tax policy. She received her Ph.D at MIT and taught for awhile at Princeton University before moving to UC.

Romer is much respected by both conservatives and liberals. In addition to her professorship, she is co-director of the monetary economics program and a member of the National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER).

Great Political Movies

Check these out this weekend! These are some of the top movies about Presidential elections. Some are old. Some are real classics. Most are funny. Some are political satire. You’ll love them all!

1.       Dick (1999)

Two teenage girls (Kristen Dunst and Michelle Williams) bring down the White House during the Nixon administration and Watergate scandal. The girls end up influencing everything from G.Gordon LIddy breaking into Democratic headquarters to the Vietnam peace process. They learn of Nixon’s character and spill everything to Bob Woodward, played by Will Ferrell, and Carl Bernstein. A hilarious movie!

2.       Primary Colors (1998)

You gotta love this film. It’s a spoof on Bill Clinton and the sex scandal that happened while he was in office. John Travolta plays a southern governor who became President who keeps on going after the sex scandal with the support of his wife and his staff. Emma Thompson, the hilarious Kathy Bates, and Billy Bob Thornton (and you never know about him) star in this movie that was nominated for two Oscars. It’s a great political satire!

3.       My Fellow Americans (1996)

Two feuding ex-Presidents (Jack Lemmon and James Garner) get together to fight against the current president who is making them scapegoats in a scandal in his own administration. They try to clear their names on a trip across southern America and get involved in hilarious situations including a gay pride parade. Dan Akroyd, Sela Ward, and Lauren Bacall are the supporting cast. The movie was a great hit and comedy.

4.       The President’s Analyst (1967)

My oldie but goodie! For those of you who like old movies and spy films, this one is for you! It’s been preserved on DVD so you should be able to find it with no problem and it’s worth it! This film is a zany spy flick staring James Coburn as the President’s psychiatrist. He eventually quits this job and is then pursued by spy’s who want his knowledge. Lots of retro appeal. You’ll love it!

Obama Won't Govern in Isolation

When gas at the pump went to $4/gallon, George Bush didn't even know it until some time later when one of his advisors told him. Shocking? Yep. Bush has been known to be one of the most isolated Presidents in history. Isolated from the press corp. Certainly isolated from the people. As the years passed, Bush's White House developed a bunker mentality where everyone hunkered down as if every day was a crisis. Hey - what a thought! Maybe it was and we didn't even know it.

President-elect Obama is a different kind of man. He's gone from state senator to President in four short years. He's not from a family that is a political dynasty like the Bushes or the Kennedy's. He's not used to guarding his privacy and his family. The transition from private citizen to President of the United States is going to be shocking.

Obama is already experiencing some of that as things are pretty nailed down around his home in Chicago. He can't go to the barber anymore - the barber comes to him. One of the things he particularly misses is that he can't take a private walk with his wife. 

Obama is used to being able to interact and communicate with friends and colleagues. We all know the story of his Blackberry - and the fact he's a bit of a Blackberry addict. He'll probably lose his Blackberry and cell phone after Inaugeration Day. But, the President-elect is concerned - concerned that he'll have no way to listen to the people that elected him.

Recently, it was reported that Obama is working with his staff, White House lawyers, and the Secret Service to find a solution to the isolation that affects every President, no matter how available they strive to be to the public. If he loses his Blackberry, then he wants some backup form of communication. Who can blame him? i even admire him. A huge grassroots campaign elected him. He wants to keep in touch with them. He says that he wants to hear what's going on in the minds of the American people from those other than the 10 or 12 people who will have access to the Oval Office. I WANT him to have access to the voices of the American people. Don't you? Any solutions out there?

Let's End Black Friday

Even though I'm a political writer on PNN, I feel compelled to talk about what happened at a Wal-Mart today (Black Friday) in New York. It makes no sense to me that a crowd of American people trampled to death a Wal-Mart worker trying to get into the store when it opened.

WHAT? This is America. American people, civilized people, don't do things like that. Aren't we civilized anymore? What has happened to us that we would trample a worker at a store in order to get to the cheapest merchandise first? Does that make sense to any of you? This man, a temporary seasonal worker for Wal-Mart, DIED.

The pictures I've seen of Black Friday shopping have always bothered me. People pushing and shoving and snatching merchandise out of other people's hands. It sounds more like animals than people.

As the difficult environment in which we live completely drained the humanity out of us? Is our civilization breaking down to the point where human life is no longer valuable or not as valuable as some cheap item we can buy?

I am putting out a call for Wal-Mart and other stores to STOP Black Friday beginning next year. No more early morning store openings, no more deep discounts just on that day, no more Black Friday. Not until we recover our humanity.

It's Always an Emergency

One more weekend. One more middle of the night bailout. This time it's Citigroup. Two things are disturbing to me. First, why are the meetings on these bailouts always held in secrecy on the weekends or at night? What's the secret?

Second, what is really the emergency? Hank Paulsen and George W. Bush convinced Congress that they must pass the emergency $850 million financial bailout package weeks ago. That it was an emergency. That the sky would fall on our heads immediately if that package didn't pass and if it wasn't implemented immediately.

Last I heard, most of the money still hasn't been spent though I guess Citicorp is the proud recipient of some of it today. Has the sky fallen since the huge bailout passed? No. Paulsen and Bush promised that the funds would unfreeze the credit markets. Has that happened? No. The banks still aren't lending money. Whether they have no money to lend or they are using it for other things or they are hoarding it, no one seems to know.....including Bush & Co.

My question is who is the bailout money going to exactly. Yes, we know it is going to particular banks and financial institutions like AIG (that is another story for another time). However, WHO is the money going to at those companies? Is this all a big scam to bail out  Hank Paulsen's Wall Street buddies so they can get out of Dodge before they are indicted for fraud....or before they lose their severence packages or golden parachutes? We know Paulsen has already changed the game and is not buying up "toxic" assets (read: bad mortgages) but is, instead, "infusing capital" into these financial institutions. Ah, infusing capital. Propping up the banks.

I read an article this morning that talked about how poor Citicorp was in such bad shape because it had been involved in lending in the subprime market. All together now...............AHHHHHHHHHHHH. The management of Citicorp was smart enough to know that was risky. Why are we feeling sorry for them? Why don't they take their punishment along with the small banks that are failing that no one is doing anything for? Two more small, community banks failed this weekend. Did they get bailout money? NO.

WHERE IS THE OVERSIGHT? I think the American people should start demanding to see a breakdown of where and how THEIR money is being spent. I repeat........WHERE IS THE OVERSIGHT?

It's time to write your Congressman. This is YOUR money they are playing with. Ask one simple question and demand an answer.

WHERE IS THE OVERSIGHT?

Social Consequences of Auto Industry Failure

Allow me to play devil’s advocate. I’m not necessarily expressing my own opinion. I’m expressing two sides of what I believe is an important argument that our country has to answer and answer quickly. This occurred to me when Congress nailed the CEO’s of the Big Three automobile companies when they testified in front of Congress concerning another $25 billion bailout. Congress was upset because their transportation to the hearings was their corporate jets. Three separate corporate jets. From the same city. When they were coming to Congress to ask for money.

If we bailout one or more of the automobile manufacturers, what about moral hazard? Does the fact that the Big Three automobile manufacturers know they can run to the government, hat in hand, and get what they want, mean that those executives then feel they can operate recklessly or take unreasonable risks? After all, don't they figure they have the power to be bailed out again?

On the other hand, what about the social consequences of not bailing out the automobile industry? The automobile industry represents most of the remaining heavy manufacturing left in the U.S. When we graduate from high school, not all of us want to go to college. Not all of us want to spend our lives working at a keyboard. Not all of us want a white collar or even a pink collar job. Some of us want to work at heavy jobs. Some want to do the heavy lifting. Those are the workers that work in manufacturing. They want the U.S. to have a manufacturing industry and they want to work in it and support it. What are those workers going to do if the automobile industry disappears? The unemployment numbers might be staggering, not to mention disenchanted and disenfranchised workers.

We don’t need all workers to go to college and seek white and pink collar jobs. We need blue collar workers. We need blue collar jobs. What are we about to do? We’re about to eliminate over a million blue collar jobs if we let the automobile industry go down the tube.

Another PNN blogger advocated Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It sounds like a reasonable alternative on the face of it. The business part of me thinks it is the most reasonable idea. But, the economic crisis and frozen credit markets make Chapter 11 different now. Finding access to creditors would be difficult or impossible. Also, the companies would cut jobs, pay, and benefits. Pension plans for millions of retired auto workers could disappear. The government would help, but could it help that much?

Do all firms come out of Chapter 11? No. Did you know that the rate of successful Chapter 11 bankruptcies is low, depressing low? How low? Much less than 50%. More like 10%. Of course, the government would help and that would increase the success rate, but still....there is a risk.

So there you have it. The moral hazards of bailing out the auto makers and social consequences of not bailing them out.

What do you think?

Obama's Economic Stimulus Plan

In his press conference on Friday, President-elect Obama showed a clear understanding of the challenges facing him as a takes the highest political office in the land. He particularly discussed the economic meltdown that we face and how he plans to attack it. He mentioned the crisis in the automobile industry. GM, Ford, and Chrysler are all facing their own individual cash crunch with GM only having enough cash to make it through the middle of 2009. Since the Michigan governor is on his economic team of experts, he is undoubtedly sufficiently briefed on this crisis.

My sense, after the press conference, was that the President-elect feels that part of the government bail-out money should go to the automobile manufacturers as they have been the backbone of our manufacturing sector for a long time. For every job lost in the auto industry, nine jobs are lost downstream from that industry. That is a huge impact on our economy and shows the number of support jobs and industries related to auto manufacturing. Right now, our manufacturing industry in the U.S. is at the same level it was in 1942.

 It seemed to me, though, that he is for bailing out the auto industry only under some caveats. One is that they retool for more fuel-efficient cars. Never mind that gas prices are currently declining. If we have learned anything, it should be that this is a temporary phenomenon. Oil reserves are still declining. We are still dependent on foreign oil. Hummers and their ilk just aren’t logical anymore. He also mentioned retooling the idle auto manufacturing plants for green technology. Both ideas should get automobile workers back to work.

President-elect Obama is also working on a jobs package that seems similar to the jobs package instituted by President Roosevelt at the end of the Great Depression. The Works Progress Administration (WPA) was put into place to employ unemployed workers until the economy recovered. The WPA built public buildings and roads. It operated literacy programs. It fed children and provided housing and clothing to the poor. Communities today can look around and see at least one WPA building, bridge, park, or road that was built by the WPA.   

President-elect Obama seems interested in a similar program. He’d like to use unemployed construction workers and auto workers and get them involved in green technology jobs such as insulating houses, helping to transform auto plants into greener facilities, and other public works programs. This will involve a stimulus package, but a Main Street stimulus package, not a Wall Street stimulus package. He would like to see this stimulus plan passed in the Congressional lame duck session before he takes office. I’m sure that is on his agenda of things to talk to President Bush about today when he visits him at the White House. He stated that if it is not passed in the lame duck session, it will be the first item on his agenda after his inauguration.

After President-elect Obama’s press conference on Friday, I was left with a clear sense of hope and optimism. He seems to have a clear understanding of the enormity of the task facing him, with regard to the economic crisis facing our country, and at least a sense of how to solve it. He is somber, thoughtful, and open to thoughts from his throng of economic advisors. That makes me feel good. I also have the sense that, in the end, he will make his own decision and that’s good enough for me as he has a brilliant mind, a finger on the pulse, and a clear vision for America. He won’t govern in isolation, however, and that will be a breath of fresh air after the last eight years of the Bush administration that we’ve experienced.

Welcome to The Peavler Political

I'm Rosemary and I'm writing about politics and life. I live on a mountain with my sweetie who is also my husband and two dogs, two cats, and all kinds of wildlife (the four-legged kind). I teach a little (business, primarily finance), write a little (freelance), and blog a little.

I follow politics and business obsessively. Lest you think I'm a total geek, I also have other interests........all of which I am obsessive about. Reading (British history, sci fi), traveling with my husband either in an RV or not, fast cars (I know - not politically correct now), rescuing abused dogs (don't get me started) and finding them good homes, boating, and writing, writing, writing...... about everything. Eek.....I guess I am a geek!

I'm glad to be with you to take this journey to the election.....it should be fascinating. Comments welcome!

Rosemary

The Economy: A Plea to Congress

Congress will come back into session on December 2 to consider an auto industry bailout package. The automakers have to present an acceptable plan to them in order to receive any funding. Just as important as the automakers is our need for an economic stimulus package for Main Street. We need it now. Not after January 20. Now.

My concern is the fact that there seems to be a vacuum of power in Washington, something I’ve written about before. Bush is out of there. Paulsen has indicated that he basically won’t be back to deal with the rest of the financial stimulus money for the financial institutions. Citigroup is about to go under. Retail sales numbers are down in a scary way. The stock market is at approximately half of its all time high.

On top of all that, we’re starting to see deflation. In other words, prices are going down. That may sound good after the high prices of gas and groceries we’ve been experiencing but it isn’t good from an economic standpoint. The last time we had a prolonged period of deflation was during the Great Depression in the 1930s. The latest report on the Consumer Price Index is that it dropped by 1%. That is a large change in the Consumer Price Index and an unprecedented drop.

What is deflation and why is it bad? Deflation is falling prices that happen when people stop buying. That is happening to some extent right now. When this happens, people postpone buying expecting prices to go even lower and then businesses can’t make a profit or pay off their debts. At that point, there is lower demand for goods and services and businesses have to lay off workers and cut production which leads to even lower prices.

Obviously, this is not a good thing for business. Japan has been in a cycle of deflation for a decade now and it has found that it has been almost impossible to pull out of its economic recession.  

Can we really wait until after the Obama inauguration on January 20 for an economic stimulus package?

Right now, for all practical purposes, Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, and Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, are running the country, hopefully with input from the President-elect. They need to address an economic stimulus package when they come back for their second lame duck session on December 2. Are we just going to let the economy continue to get worse and the credit markets continue to stay frozen until one minute after noon on January 20? Does that sound reasonable?

A plea to Congress. Please work with the new President-elect and get together at least parts of an economic stimulus package before you dismiss Congress for the year in December. If you don’t, there may not be much to come back to in January.

Gingrich, Fascism, and Sarah Palin

Does anyone remember Newt Gingrich (R-GA)? That Republican Speaker of the House who went away in shame ten years ago after some serious Republican losses and personal scandals? The vacuum in leadership in the Republican Party is allowing an opening again for Gingrich to re-surface. He even toyed with the idea of offering himself up as the Republican candidate for President this year, but it didn’t materialize. Now, he seems to be trying to step into a leadership role in the party as it struggles to find a leader and a message.

The Republican Party is in danger of fracturing right down the middle into a party with two factions and two messages. Newt Gingrich is promoting a far right social conservatism agenda taking positions much like those we heard from Sarah Palin, former Vice-Presidential candidate. Social conservatism is an ideology that believes that government has a role in enforcing traditional morals or